On December 18th, according to the "2014 Tariff Implementation Plan" released by the State Council Tariff Commission on December 16th, export tariffs on rare earth, tungsten, and molybdenum related products have not been lifted. Legal professionals involved in the WTO's rare earth ruling lawsuit on Weibo told Da Zhihui News Agency on Thursday that China has reached an enforcement agreement with the United States, Japan, and Europe, and will enforce the WTO ruling by mid-2015. This means that export tariffs on rare earth and other products will be lifted at that time.

On August 7th, the WTO announced a ruling that the export tariffs and quota measures for China's rare earth, tungsten, and molybdenum related products do not comply with relevant WTO rules and China's commitment to joining the WTO [Weibo]. This means that China will be forced to cancel export tariffs, quotas, and other measures against rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum.

The above-mentioned legal professionals stated that according to legal provisions, the specific execution period after losing a WTO case needs to be negotiated between the losing party and the prosecuting party. If a unified agreement cannot be reached, the arbitration institution will determine the execution period. The execution period for this Chinese rare earth tungsten and molybdenum export case may be from April to May 2015.

Implementing multiple strategies to regulate rare earth resources simultaneously

Industry insiders have stated that the adjustment of quotas has actually begun in tungsten exports, changing from the previous export quota to an export license system. On November 3, the Ministry of Commerce announced the "2015 Declaration Conditions and Procedures for State Owned Trade Enterprises Exporting Tungsten, Antimony, and Silver", and relevant enterprises have already applied to the Ministry of Commerce.

China's regulation and integration of rare earth and other resources are gradually tightening. On the one hand, the establishment of the six major rare earth groups has been approved by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. On the other hand, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries are studying the adjustment of rare earth resource taxes. Wang Qinhua, Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated at the 2014 China Rare Earth Forum that the rare earth resource tax will be adjusted, but it will be based on the premise of not increasing the burden on enterprises.

On November 20th, it was reported that relevant national departments are considering changing the rare earth resource tax collection method from "quantity based collection" to "price based collection". According to the currently undecided plan, the tax rate for light rare earth resources in the north will be 22%, and for ion mines in the south it will be 35%.

Rare earth blackout and other measures will boost rare earth prices

After all the plans for the establishment of rare earth large groups were approved, the crackdown on rare earth black has become a hot topic in the market. Recently, the official reported the corruption case of rare earth in Anyuan, Jiangxi. More than 20 officials, including Kuang Guanghua, former county party secretary of Anyuan County, Wei Songyang, former standing committee member in charge of rare earth rectification work, Liao Xueyong, former deputy county mayor and director of the public security bureau, and Ling Yongsheng, former director of the mining management bureau, were all arrested. According to the official website of the Yueyang Municipal Government, on December 16th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with five other departments including the Ministry of Land Resources and the Ministry of Environmental Protection, came to Miluo for a special rare earth rectification inspection.

Analysts say that the disclosure of a series of anti black activities indicates the determination and strength of the regulatory authorities to crack down on rare earths. Currently, it is in the second stage of joint crackdowns by departments. Although there is no publicly available data on cracking down on black rare earths, some market insiders have indicated that they have almost disappeared in recent times.

Recently, the market has also been speculating on rare earth storage. Industry insiders analyze that the storage task for 2013 has just been completed this year, and it is unlikely that the government will complete this year's storage within this year. However, the government's storage in 2015 is a highly probable event. With the contraction of supply, it is expected that rare earth prices will have a more significant rebound in the second quarter of 2015.